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Le European Council on Foreign Relations publie un Policy Brief intitulé “After Tusk: Poland in Europe“. Selon l’étude, l’UE, grâce à son soutien financier et à son efficacité, a joué un rôle clef dans succès économique polonais de la dernière décennie. Les politiques énergétiques européennes pourraient “handicaper” les industries polonaises, mais également “inciter à leur modernisation”. Enfin, “la perspective de l’introduction de l’euro en Pologne pourrait accélérer les réformes nécessaires à la croissance”.
Poland has just experienced the most successful decade in its modern history. It took advantage of the opportunities presented by EU integration and has enjoyed stable political and economic development. Not hit by the economic crisis and led by the tandem of Tusk and Sikorski, Warsaw won the confidence of its main EU partners, most notably Berlin, and earned a strong position within the bloc. The nomination of Tusk for the post of the president of the European Council marked the end of this unprecedented era. The next decade may be more difficult and a continuation of Poland’s successful run is by no means certain. The country needs a new economic model to sustain its impressive growth. It faces political dilemmas with regard to accession to the eurozone as well as to its eastern and defence policies.
The premises upon which Poland’s successes have so far been built are becoming shaky – including its relationship with its main partners, Germany and France, which was weakened by the Ukraine crisis. If Poland is to maintain a central position within the EU, it will have to set out on a course of economic modernisation, perhaps pushed by accelerating its eurozone membership. Poland has also launched a major overhaul of its armed forces, making it potentially an important player in EU efforts to integrate the defence sector – but only if Warsaw and its European partners seize the moment.